Scenarios
This scientific analysis will try to simulate the virus risk of infection effect on the society across different situations, based on size and density of gatherings/social clusters. This analysis has been conducted specifically for Greece.
What You Should Know
- - The Risk of Infection is the probability for an individual to be infectious.
- - Active cases include diagnosed cases, asymptomatic carriers or those that are pre-symptomatic but can still spread the virus (estimated).
- - The Risk of Infection for an individual is the ratio of the maximum Active cases per period of study, to the Greek population.
Selected Scenarios demonstrating the Risk of Infection in Greece, under variable situations, interpreting our pandemic experience and the ways preventive measures can influence this experience.
Risk vs Gathering size without Masks
We note that the chance of infection in a gathering of 1000 attendees, that do not use masks was the lowest in the summer period (63%), followed by that in the spring (78%) and reached its highest value (100%) in the fall. This is due primarily to the different spread of the virus in the community and secondly to other factors such as the temperature.
Risk by Precautions vs Gathering Size in Spring
Risk by Precautions vs Gathering Size in Fall
Comparing the effect of preventive measures in the 1st wave vs the 2nd wave, we note that there is much lower contribution of the measures in the fall. For example, the risk of infection in a gathering of 1000 attendees in the spring decreaces from 78% to 26% with mask usage and ventilation. While in the fall, the chance for risk infection with or without mask is certain and comes down to 86% if proper ventilation exists. This observation suggests that usual precautions are of minor importance, once the spread of the virus is extensive in the community.
Indoor/Outdoor Risk vs Gathering Size in Spring
Indoor/Outdoor Risk vs Gathering Size in Fall
Comparing the risk of infection in outdoor versus indoor gatherings, we note that there is a big difference in favor of outdoor gatherings. This difference is similar during the 1st and the 2nd wave of the pandemic, with a remarkable increase of the risk of infection, even in outdoor gatherings during the 2nd wave.
Risk by Region vs Gathering Size in Spring
Risk by Region vs Gathering Size in Fall
Comparing the risk of infection between Athens and Thessaloniki, we note that it follows a similar pattern in the 1st wave, while in the 2nd wave, there is a much higher chance of infection in the region of Thessaloniki. This is again a result of the much higher spread of the virus in Thessaloniki, during the 2nd wave.
Risk by Venue vs Mask Usage
This reaviling scenario demonstrates that the risk of infection is much higher in recreation venues such as bars, restaurants and other overcrowding places, while venues we normally visit in our everyday routines (subway, supermarket, parks) are much less dangerous. Needless to mention, the positive effect of mask usage in any of these cases.
Covid-19 vs Car Accident Odds of Death
To demonstrate how risky are our everyday habits during the pandemic, we chose a scenario that compares the chance of dying from covid-19 to the chance to be involved in a fatal car accident. Example given, visiting a bar we are 264 times more prevalent to die from covid-19, compared to our death in a car accident. Again, the mask usage decreases this risk by more than half.
Risk by Vaccination vs Gathering Size without Masks
Comparing the risk of infection in gatherings of people, vaccinated and non-vaccinated, we note that there is a big difference in favor of the vaccinated group. For example, the risk of infection in a gathering of 500 participants decreases from 100% for the non-vaccinated group to 46% for the vaccinated group.
Risk of Hospitalization by Vaccination vs Gathering Size
Comparing the risk of hospitalization in gatherings of people, vaccinated and non-vaccinated, we note that there is a big difference in favor of vaccinated people. For example, the risk of being hospitalized in a gathering of 1000 attendees decreases from 63% for the non-vaccinated group to 4% for the vaccinated group. Comparing the
Risk of Death by Vaccination vs Gathering Size
Comparing the risk of death in gatherings of people, vaccinated and non-vaccinated, we note that there is a big difference in favor of vaccinated people. For example, the risk of being deceased in a gathering of 1000 attendees decreases from 7% for the non-vaccinated group to 0,3% for the vaccinated group.
If you have found this small selection of scenarios interesting, you can always contact us for more.
